JUST HOW MANY PEOPLE DIED IN JALLIANWALA BAGH?
The Background
The Jallianwala Bagh a few months after the massacre |
On
this day the ground was filled with a crowd estimated to be between 12,000 to
15,000 Indians of all ages and major religions: Sikhs, Hindus and Muslims. Brigadier
General Reginald Dyer came to this lot near the Golden Temple
with sixty-five Gurkha and twenty-five Baloch soldiers and two armoured cars
mounting machineguns. The soldiers were armed with fifty SMLE .303 (7.7mm)
rifles. The rest of the troops, presumably Gurkha recruits, only had khukhries or perhaps sword type
bayonets (it is not really clear because at that time rifle regiments called the bayonets "swords" and reports say they were armed with swords. Not that it matters here). The armoured cars were left outside, as they were unable to enter the
Bagh through the narrow entrance. The main entrance was guarded by the troops
backed by the armoured vehicles.
This passage offered the only open exit. But it was blocked by the troops and armoured cars |
The Massacre
Dyer—without
warning the crowd to disperse—blocked the main exits and ordered his men to
fire into the crowd. He explained later that this act “was not to disperse the
meeting but to punish the Indians for disobedience”.
The
troops kept firing for about ten minutes in the direction where the crowd was
densest. First this was the main body at the centre of the ground. Then firing
was directed towards the sides where the panic stricken people were milling
about, looking for an exit. The official count of rounds fired is 1,650.
Dyer
left when he felt the ammunition was running out, and imposed a curfew. The
rest is history, and discussed in detail in many books and articles.
How Many Died?
What
has intrigued me is the number of casualties. How many people died? Official
figures say 379 people were killed and 1,200 wounded. This figure of 379 is simply
incredible – ridiculous.
How
can you shoot into a confined mass of humanity at least 12,000 strong with SMLE
rifles firing Mark VII rounds 1,650 in number, from a range of 100 metres or
so, and kill only 379?
The
Ballistics; Just the Basics
A WW1 pattern SMLE rifle |
The
Short Magazine Lee Enfield (SMLE) was a bolt action rifle with a box magazine
holding ten rounds. The magazine could be filled in a matter of seconds by
means of charger clips holding five rounds each. The SMLE bolt action was
renowned for its rapid firing ability. A trained firer could get off twenty
rounds in one minute. The ammunition
then in use was the Mark VII round; it couldn’t have been Mark VI, as stated on
the board at Jallianwala. This had been phased out a decade ago. (This has an
important bearing on the case, since Mk VII could kill more people).
This plaque wrongly mentions the type of ammo. |
This
round packs a terrific punch. It leaves the muzzle at a speed of about 743
metres per second. The spiral grooves inside the barrel – called the rifling –
imparts a spin to the bullet. The bullet was so designed that most of the
weight fell near the tail. So, when it met any resistance, as when it hit a
person, the spinning bullet wobbled about its path. They call it yawing. This
yawing bullet made a horribly big wound where it exited the body. But it still
had enough kinetic energy left to go through two or three more bodies
(depending on whether it hit bone or soft flesh). The yawing bullet rarely hit
the secondary target head on. It can even travel in a different direction,
especially if it has hit some hard bone. It more often than not hit the second
person broadside and made an elongated wound, called a keyhole wound by
experts. Meaning that the second or third victims of the same bullet didn’t
have it so nice either. Probably worse.
Lethal. The Mark VII .303 round |
Oh, and I forgot to add:
this rifle and ammo can kill from a kilometre away (though it is altogether a
different matter that it’s hard to aim and be accurate from so far). But if it
hits, it can kill. Here we are talking about 100, or at most 150 metres range.
A rookie can’t miss a human target from this range. And when they are bunched
up, he can scarcely miss at all.
A Few More Incidentals Before We Crunch the
Numbers
A cloth bandolier holds ten charger clips, making a total of fifty rounds per soldier.
There were 50 rifles which
(they say) fired a total of 1,650 rounds. That’s an average of 33 rounds per
soldier, in about ten minutes. So this figure is probably correct.
Another fact, a bit
curious, is that at least one or more soldiers fired to miss. It is mentioned
in some book (in Butcher of Amritsar by Nigel Collet) that an officer under Dyer found it necessary to deny that any man was deliberately missing. The evidence is there on
the Jallianwala walls. Some bullet holes are way too high up. And they are
straight round holes, not keyholes. That means the bullet probably didn't hit
anything before striking the brick wall. Some shots were no doubt fired at the
windows of the houses, and also at onlookers on the rooftops. But some of the
holes aren't near any window. This implies that at least one of the Gurkhas or
Balochis still had a spark of humanity in him.
The Numbers and My Own Guesstimates
Total rounds fired
|
1650
|
|||
Estimated primary hits
(on the low side) should be at least 1/3 of them. (Multiple hits on same person counted as misses)
|
1/3 of 1650
|
=
|
550
|
|
Estimated
immediate fatalities, at least 1/3 of those hit
|
1/3 of 550
|
≈
|
(dead) 183
|
|
That leaves
injured
|
550 – 183
|
=
|
(injured)
367
|
|
Incapacitated
injured hit again, trampled to death, or died of no medical attention (due to
curfew) could be 1/3 at least of the injured 367
|
1/3 of 367
|
≈
|
(dead) 122
|
|
That makes dead,
so far
|
183 + 122
|
=
|
305
|
|
That leaves
injured, so far
|
367 – 122
|
=
|
245
|
As mentioned before, these
bullets can hit 2 or 3 more persons. The first person hit was the primary
target, the second is the secondary target, and the third hit by the same
bullet would be the tertiary target.
Secondary hits,
could be at least 1/4 of the primary hits, which were estimated at 550
|
1/4 of 550
|
≈
|
137
|
|
Deaths from
secondary hits, at least 1/4 of hits
|
1/4 of 137
|
≈
|
(dead) 34
|
|
That leaves
injured from secondary hits
|
137 – 34
|
=
|
(injured)
103
|
|
Incapacitated
injured hit again or trampled to death, or died of no medical attention, could
be 1/4 at least of the injured 103
|
1/4 of 103
|
≈
|
(dead) 25
|
|
That leaves
injured from sec. hits
|
103 – 25
|
=
|
(injured) 78
|
|
Deaths now total
305 + 34 + 25
|
=
|
(dead) 364
|
||
Injured now
total 245 + 78
|
=
|
323
|
Since these bullets were
fired into a dense crowd, some of them found a third human target. The tertiary
hits.
Tertiary hits,
could be at least 1/5 of the secondary hits, which were estimated at 137
|
1/5 of 137
|
≈
|
27
|
|
Fatalities of tertiary
hits, could be at least 1/4 of those hit
|
1/4 of 27
|
≈
|
(dead) 6
|
|
That leaves injured
from tertiary hits
|
27 – 6
|
=
|
21
|
|
Deaths now total
364 + 6
|
=
|
(dead) 370
|
||
Injured now
total 323 + 21
|
=
|
344
|
Now lets us assume that
these injured have the capacity to still walk (though unlikely in all cases).
So we will consider them with the others in the crowd. The crowd was estimated
to be a minimum of 12,000. Of these we have already estimated that 370 have died in the
shooting.
Crowd who survived
the firing
|
12,000–370
|
=
|
11,630
|
Of these, a large number
died in the stampede(s). Recent stampedes at places of pilgrimage can be a
guide here. The children, elderly, otherwise weak or injured are the most
vulnerable. About 5% (i.e 1/20) of the crowd may have died in this manner.
There was no escape, remember.
140 bodies alone are said to have been recovered
from the well in the ground. So the following estimate is very much on the
lower side.
Panic stricken people jumped into this well. 140 bodies are reported to have been taken out |
Killed in
stampede, crowd of about 11,000
|
1/20 of 11000
|
=
|
550
|
Injuries in
stampede; could be 4 times the deaths
|
550 x 4
|
=
|
2200
|
This makes a
grand total of dead 370 + 550
|
=
|
(dead) 920
|
|
And a grand
total of injured 344 + 2200
|
=
|
2544
|
So,
What is the Guesstimate
According to my cold
blooded reasoning, 920 should be the figure of the dead, and more than 2,500
injured, on that hot April day in 1919.
Madan
Mohan Malaviya’s Figures
The Madan Mohan Malaviya
Committee was appointed by the Indian National Congress to make a report on the
Amritsar
disturbances. After rigorous questioning of witnesses (Malaviya was a trained
lawyer and could be relied on to discard tall tales) and sifting of evidence,
his figures are: Dead 1000; Injured 1500.
Conclusion
The conclusion I can draw
is that Malaviya’s figures are more accurate. The official figure of 379 dead
needs to be dumped and discredited. We shouldn’t let the halo of antiquity give
the least bit of respectability to this silly figure.